Is it just me, or is there a PROBLEM with this pattern?

Lacy Poncho I’m hoping to make:

Below is my logic :think:. Does anyone else see a problem???

[B]GAUGE: 11sts = 4"[/B]
For XS-M size(30-38"), cast on 144sts.
(144/11sts=13.09x4=52.36" bottom edge)

Work from bottom up, gradual decreases to shape top, then END with 58sts & cast off loosely. (58/11=5.27*4=21.09" top)

21.09" (or a bit more with loose cast-off) is too small for a neck opening!
To make the poncho loose like the photo, I need 28" for my dd.

Does my reasoning make sense or have I made a mistake :???

I’d question it, too! Maybe it will be smaller than what shows in the picture but I found a top down pattern for a pullover and it started me with 59 sts. on size #8s, and the neck was closer than your pattern shows. That was too small but it turned out fine. Also, lace pattern sts are generally very loose.

Thanks for replying.

Not sure if the pattern would turn out with the proper yarn.
The yarn I used is totally different than the one specified, so I made a guess based on my yarn’s gauge & worked it out.